December 13, 2022
U.S. factory orders rose +1.0% m/m in October, up +11.1% from a year ago. Note that this number is not adjusted for inflation. US durable goods orders fell -2.1% m/m in November, up +6.7% from a year ago. Again, not adjusted for inflation, so real growth in orders is significantly smaller. Durable goods orders excluding […]
December 13, 2022
US consumer prices (CPI) rose +0.1% m/m in November, lower than expected, up +7.1% from a year ago (down from a peak of +9.0% y/y in June). Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose +0.2% m/m in November, less than expected, up +6.0% from a year ago (down from +6.7% in October). Consumer food prices […]
December 13, 2022
US industrial production fell -0.2% m/m in November. Nevertheless, production is still up +2.5% from a year ago. Total industrial capacity utilization declined to 79.7% in November. US manufacturing output (a subset of industrial production) fell -0.6% m/m in November, though it is still up +1.4% from a year ago. Manufacturing capacity utilization declined to […]
December 13, 2022
US real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an annualized q/q rate of +2.9% in Q3, better than expected, after two quarters of negative growth. This is as of revised data released November 30, 2022. The composition of US GDP growth in Q3 was: +2.9% = +1.2 consumption, +0.7 business investment, -1.0 inventories, -1.4 housing, […]
November 29, 2022
I was on CNBC’s PowerLunch on November 29, 2002, responding to questions about investor concerns over recent protest and whether China is an investable market. Take a listen here:
November 15, 2022
US producer prices (PPI – final demand) rose +0.2% m/m in October, less than expected. The index is up +8.0% from a year ago, but down noticeably from its peak of +11.7% in March. PPI is often seen as a leading indicator of where inflation is headed.
November 14, 2022
The critique of constructive US economic engagement (aka “globalization”) is that it enabled a stronger, more threatening China. But the very same approach also facilitated robust allies around the world, including Japan, S Korea, and Singapore. The critique of the Vietnam War was that active US intervention was doomed to fail and cost blood and […]
April 29, 2022
I appeared on CNBC on April 29, 2022, to talk about the U.S. economic outlook following the report of negative GDP growth in Q1. I discussed how a slower or even negative growth environment complicates things for the Fed, and explained my historical model for looking at today’s higher inflation.
April 29, 2022
At the end of my interview on CNBC on April 22, 2022, I was asked about my replies to a tweet Elon Musk made talking about putting cocaine back in Coca-Cola. I used to teach American Business History at Tsinghua University in Beijing, and it’s actually a very interesting story that ended in a 1920 […]
December 13, 2019
From December 13, 2019 I just got back from Qatar, a small country in the Middle East you probably don’t think about much, but should. Qatar is the largest liquified natural gas exporter in the world, and the richest country (per capital) in the world. It hosts the largest US military base in the Middle […]