January 28, 2023
Today in MSFS I’m checking out the Cessna L-19 “Bird Dog”, starting off at the Bien Hoa Air Base in Vietnam. The L-19 was introduced in 1950 as a light, 2-seat observation, artillery spotting, and liaison airplane for the Army after the Air Force split away on its own. The L-19 is similar is aerodynamic […]
January 28, 2023
US consumer prices (CPI) fell -0.1% m/m in December, up +6.4% from a year ago. This is down from a peak of +9.0% y/y in June. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose +0.3% m/m in December, up +5.7% from a year ago. This is down from a peak of +6.7% y/y in September. US […]
January 28, 2023
U.S. factory orders fell -1.8% m/m in November, up +7.3% from a year ago. Keep in mind these numbers are not adjusted for inflation, and the PCE price index was up +5.5% y/y in November. US durable goods orders spiked up +5.6% m/m in December, up +11.9% from a year ago (not adjusting for inflation). […]
January 26, 2023
US real GDP in 4Q22 grew at an annualized rate of +2.9% q/q, higher than expected, seeming to allay recession fears. This was down from +3.2% in Q3. That means that for 2022 as a whole, real GDP grew +2.1%, down from a +5.9% spike in 2021 due to the bounce back from Covid. The […]
January 24, 2023
In July 2020, I was asked by the China Institute to participate in their video podcast series “Pieces of China”. Each guest speaker chooses an object from China’s past as the window into the country’s culture and history. Given my interest in economics, I chose the 1911 Hukuang Railway Bond. In this talk, I describe […]
January 18, 2023
Today in Microsoft Flight Simulator, I’m flying the Bede BD-5J, the world’s smallest jet, famous for being flown by Roger Moore as James Bond in Octopussy. The BD-5J is very popular at airshows, so I’m flying it today out of Oshkosh (Whitman Regional Airport, KOSH) in Wisconsin. The BD-5 was designed in the late 1960s […]
January 18, 2023
US industrial production fell -0.7% m/m in December, its third straight month of decline. Nevertheless, production is still up +1.6% from a year ago. For Q4 as a whole, production fell -0.4% q/q, up +2.4% from a year before. For 2022 as a whole, it was up +3.9% from 2021. Total industrial capacity utilization declined […]
January 18, 2023
The University of Michigan’s US Consumer Sentiment gauge rebounded +8.2% in December to 64.6, though that is still down -3.9% from a year ago. The Conference Board’s US Consumer Confidence index bounced back +6.9 points in December to 108.3, but remains tepid relative to pre-Covid levels. In December, 19.0% of consumers surveyed by the Conference […]
January 18, 2023
US retail sales fell -1.1% m/m in December, declining for the second month in a row. Sales were up +6.0% from a year ago, but that is not adjusted for inflation. Given that consumer inflation is running at +6.4% y/y, real sales are either flat or slightly negative. Sales at gas stations fell -4.6% due […]
January 17, 2023
Today I reenacted French aviator Louis Blériot’s historic 1909 crossing of the English Channel, in Microsoft Flight Simulator. Louis Blériot was a French engineer who invented the first practical headlight for automobiles. After building a successful headlight business, he turned his attention to the experimental field of aviation. The Blériot XI, built in 1909, was […]