Economy

U.S. Economic Dashboard

Here are summaries of some of the go-to data points I look to for an indication which way the U.S economy is heading. I will try to keep them regularly updated based on new data released.

GDP

U.S. GDP - 1Q23

US real GDP in 1Q23 grew at an annualized rate of +1.1% q/q, slower than the 2.0% expected. This was down from +2.6% in 4Q22. The composition of real GDP growth in 1Q23 was: +1.1% = +2.5 consumption, +0.1 business investment, -2.3 inventories, -0.2 housing, [...]
Industrial Production

U.S. Industrial Production (as of April 2023)

US industrial production rose +0.4% m/m in March, up +0.5% from a year ago, recovering from a modest drop in 4Q22. For Q1 as a whole, production was flat q/q, up +1.0% from a year before. Total industrial capacity utilization rose slightly to 79.8% in [...]
ISM/PMI

U.S. ISM/PMI Surveys (as of May 2023)

The following are diffusion indices, based on business surveys, which means that >50 indicates expansion and <50 indicates contraction, and 50 indicates no change. A larger or small number indicates breadth, not intensity, among survey respondents. ISM Manufacturing Index rebounded +0.8 points in April to [...]
Orders

U.S. Factory Orders (as of May 2023)

U.S. factory orders rose +0.9% m/m in March, up just 1.4% from a year ago. Keep in mind these numbers are not adjusted for inflation, and the PCE price index was up +4.2% y/y in March, which suggests a real contraction. For Q1 as a [...]
Trade

U.S. Trade Balance (as of May 2023)

The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services declined to $64.2 billion in March, after reaching an all-time high in March 2020. The trade deficit for Q1 was $203.5 billion, -27.6% smaller than a year ago. In 2021, the annual U.S. trade deficit hit a [...]
Inflation

U.S. Inflation (as of April 2023)

US consumer prices (CPI) rose +0.1% m/m in March, up +5.0% from a year ago. This is down steadily from a peak of +9.0% y/y last June. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose +0.4% m/m in March, up +5.6% from a year ago. This [...]
Jobs

U.S. Jobs Data (as of May 2023)

The US economy added +253,000 jobs in April, beating expectations of a +180,000 gain. However, previous months were revised downwards by -78k in February and -71k in March, for a total of -149k. As a result, average job gains over the past three months were [...]
Consumer

U.S. Consumer Data (as of April 2023)

The University of Michigan’s US Consumer Sentiment gauge rose +2.4% in April to 63.5, though that is still down -2.6% from a year ago, and well below pre-Covid levels. The Conference Board’s US Consumer Confidence index fell -2.7 points in April to 101.3, "below the [...]
Retail

U.S. Retail Sales (as of April 2023)

US retail sales fell -1.0% m/m in March, declining for the second month in a row. Sales were up +2.9% from a year ago, but that is not adjusted for inflation. Given that consumer inflation was running at +5.0% y/y in March, this indicates that [...]
Housing

U.S. Housing Data (as of April 2023)

U.S. new homes sales rose +9.6% m/m in March, but were still down -3.4% from a year ago. For Q1 as a whole, sales rose +9.0% q/q, down -16.1% from a year before. US existing home sales fell -2.4% m/m in March, down -22.0% from [...]
Fiscal Budget

U.S. Fiscal Budget (as of May 2023)

The US federal budget deficit for the calendar year 2022 was $1.42 trillion, down significantly from $3.35 trillion in 2021. The US federal budget deficit as a percentage of GDP declined back to 5.4% in 2022, down from 11.9% in 2021 and 14.9% (which was [...]
Interest Rates

Interest Rates (as of May 2023)

At its May 2023 meeting, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC announced it was raising the Fed Funds Rate by 25 bps to a range between 5.00% and 5.25%. This was widely expected to be the last in a series of rate hikes that began in March [...]
Stock Market

Stock Market (as of January 2023)

The S&P 500 Index ended 2022 at 3,839.50, down -19.4% from a year before, after peaking almost exactly at end of 2021. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) ended 2022 at 33,147.25, down -8.8% from a year before, after peaking on January 4. The Nasdaq [...]
Commodities

Commodities (as of January 2023)

The Brent Oil Price (global) ended 2022 at $82.82 per barrel, up +7.2% from a year before, but down significantly from its spike to $133.18 in March following the Ukraine invasion. The WTI Oil Price (domestic US) ended 2022 at $80.16 per barrel, up +6.4% [...]

Latest Economy Post

Interest Rates (as of May 2023)

May 9, 2023

At its May 2023 meeting, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC announced it was raising the Fed Funds Rate by 25 bps to a range between 5.00% and 5.25%. This was widely expected to be the last in a series of rate hikes that began in March 2022.

The Fed’s statement can be found here.

This chart offers a longer-term perspective on the Fed Funds rate, which are now at their highest level since August 2007.

Following its March meeting, the Fed released this latest “dot plot” (published quarterly) of where FOMC members expect the Fed Funds rate to move in the future. The median expectation was for one more 25 bps rate hike (which happened in May), before starting to pull back.

As of May 5, the yield on 10-Year Treasuries is at 3.44%, down from 3.88% at the end of 2022.

The spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields remains negative, since July 2022. A negative “yield curve” is often seen as a leading recession indicator.

The U.S. Treasury yield curve (currently inverted, as of May 9), compared to one year ago and two years ago, when it was upward-sloping.

As of May 8, the spread on high-yield bonds stands at 4.47%, down from 4.81% at the end of 2022, despite a recent modest spike. The spread is often seen to reflect perceived credit risk in the economy.

As of May 4, the U.S. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate stands at 6.39%, down from a recent peak of 7.08% in October. Mortgage rates have risen sharply from 3.11% at the end of 2021, driven by Fed rate hikes.

View All Economy Posts »

Videos

Some of my recent appearances talking about the economy and markets.

Speaking with CNBC’s Martin Soong about the challenges of investing and doing business in China in the Xi Jinping Era. (June 2022)

Talking to CNBC’s Dan Murphy about why slower growth in early 2022 wouldn’t (and didn’t) derail the Fed’s continued rate hikes. (April 2022)

More with CNBC’s Dan Murphy, explaining the interesting historical background behind Elon Musk’s jibe about reintroducing cocaine into Coca-Cola.

Talking with CNN’s Richard Quest about the Chinese government’s crackdown on technology firms. (July 2021)

Selected Articles

Some of my previously published articles, blog posts, and other material focused on the economy and markets.

Short Q&A on the Debt Ceiling

GMF: Towards a New Architecture for the International Economic Order

Congressional Testimony on China's Overseas Investments

FP: It's Time to Kick Germany Out of the Eurozone

The materials on this website are intended for information purposes only and does not recommend or solicit the purchase or sale of specific securities or investment services. Readers should not infer or assume that any securities, sectors or markets described were or will be profitable or are appropriate to meet the objectives, situation or needs of a particular individual or family, as the implementation of any financial strategy should only be made after consultation with your attorney, tax advisor and investment advisor. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed.

The materials on this website may contain the personal opinions of the author, as of the date set forth herein, about the securities, investments and/or economic subjects discussed. No part of the author's professional compensation was related to any specific views contained in these materials.