April 30, 2023
U.S. new homes sales rose +9.6% m/m in March, but were still down -3.4% from a year ago. For Q1 as a whole, sales rose +9.0% q/q, down -16.1% from a year before. US existing home sales fell -2.4% m/m in March, down -22.0% from a year ago. The median sales price of new homes […]
May 5, 2023
The US economy added +253,000 jobs in April, beating expectations of a +180,000 gain. However, previous months were revised downwards by -78k in February and -71k in March, for a total of -149k. As a result, average job gains over the past three months were +222k per month, down from an average rate of +399k […]
April 18, 2023
At its March 2023 meeting, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC announced it was raising the Fed Funds Rate by 25 bps to a range between 4.75% and 5.00%. This was the latest in a series of rate hikes that began in March 2022. The Fed’s statement can be found here. This chart offers a longer-term perspective on […]
April 30, 2023
The University of Michigan’s US Consumer Sentiment gauge rose +2.4% in April to 63.5, though that is still down -2.6% from a year ago, and well below pre-Covid levels. The Conference Board’s US Consumer Confidence index fell -2.7 points in April to 101.3, “below the level which often signals a recession looming in the short-term,” […]
May 3, 2023
U.S. factory orders rose +0.9% m/m in March, up just 1.4% from a year ago. Keep in mind these numbers are not adjusted for inflation, and the PCE price index was up +4.2% y/y in March, which suggests a real contraction. For Q1 as a whole, order fell -2.1% q/q, up just +2.5% from a […]
February 6, 2023
At its January-February 2023 meeting, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC announced it was raising the Fed Funds Rate by 25 bps to 4.75%. This was the latest in a series of rate hikes that began in March 2022. The Fed’s statement can be found here. This chart offers a longer-term perspective on the Fed Funds rate, which […]
February 6, 2023
The University of Michigan’s US Consumer Sentiment gauge rebounded +8.7% in December to 64.9, though that is still down -3.4% from a year ago. The Conference Board’s US Consumer Confidence index fell -1.9 points in January to 107.0, and remains noticeably below pre-Covid levels. In January, 20.2% of consumers surveyed by the Conference Board said […]
February 5, 2023
The following are diffusion indices, based on business surveys, which means that >50 indicates expansion and <50 indicates contraction, and 50 indicates no change. A larger or small number indicates breadth, not intensity, among survey respondents. ISM Manufacturing Index fell -1.0 points in January to 47.4, its third month in contraction. While manufacturing employment seems […]
February 4, 2023
U.S. factory orders rose +1.8% m/m in December, up +8.6% from a year ago. Keep in mind these numbers are not adjusted for inflation, and the PCE price index was up +5.0% y/y in December. For Q4 as a whole, orders were flat q/q, up +8.7% from a year before. For 2022 as a whole, […]
February 4, 2023
The US economy added +517,000 jobs in January, blowing away expectations of a +187,000 increase. In addition to the surprise outperformance in January, previous months were revised upwards by +34k in November and +37k in December, for total of +71k. As a result, average job gains over the past three months were +356k per month […]