January 28, 2023
U.S. factory orders fell -1.8% m/m in November, up +7.3% from a year ago. Keep in mind these numbers are not adjusted for inflation, and the PCE price index was up +5.5% y/y in November. US durable goods orders spiked up +5.6% m/m in December, up +11.9% from a year ago (not adjusting for inflation). […]
January 26, 2023
US real GDP in 4Q22 grew at an annualized rate of +2.9% q/q, higher than expected, seeming to allay recession fears. This was down from +3.2% in Q3. That means that for 2022 as a whole, real GDP grew +2.1%, down from a +5.9% spike in 2021 due to the bounce back from Covid. The […]
April 29, 2022
I appeared on CNBC on April 29, 2022, to talk about the U.S. economic outlook following the report of negative GDP growth in Q1. I discussed how a slower or even negative growth environment complicates things for the Fed, and explained my historical model for looking at today’s higher inflation.
April 29, 2022
At the end of my interview on CNBC on April 22, 2022, I was asked about my replies to a tweet Elon Musk made talking about putting cocaine back in Coca-Cola. I used to teach American Business History at Tsinghua University in Beijing, and it’s actually a very interesting story that ended in a 1920 […]
January 28, 2023
U.S. new homes sales rose +2.3% m/m in December, but were down -26.6% from a year ago. For Q4 as a whole, sales rose +4.4% q/q, down -19.9% from a year before. For 2022 as a whole, sales were down -16.5% from 2021. US existing home sales fell -1.5% m/m in December, down -34.0% from […]
January 18, 2023
US industrial production fell -0.7% m/m in December, its third straight month of decline. Nevertheless, production is still up +1.6% from a year ago. For Q4 as a whole, production fell -0.4% q/q, up +2.4% from a year before. For 2022 as a whole, it was up +3.9% from 2021. Total industrial capacity utilization declined […]
January 18, 2023
The University of Michigan’s US Consumer Sentiment gauge rebounded +8.2% in December to 64.6, though that is still down -3.9% from a year ago. The Conference Board’s US Consumer Confidence index bounced back +6.9 points in December to 108.3, but remains tepid relative to pre-Covid levels. In December, 19.0% of consumers surveyed by the Conference […]
January 18, 2023
US retail sales fell -1.1% m/m in December, declining for the second month in a row. Sales were up +6.0% from a year ago, but that is not adjusted for inflation. Given that consumer inflation is running at +6.4% y/y, real sales are either flat or slightly negative. Sales at gas stations fell -4.6% due […]
January 28, 2023
US consumer prices (CPI) fell -0.1% m/m in December, up +6.4% from a year ago. This is down from a peak of +9.0% y/y in June. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose +0.3% m/m in December, up +5.7% from a year ago. This is down from a peak of +6.7% y/y in September. US […]
January 7, 2023
The U.S. economy added +223,000 jobs in December, beating expectations of +200,000. Over the past three months, the economy has added an average of +247,000 jobs per month. For 2022 as a whole, the economy added +4.5 million jobs (an average of +375,000 per month), compared to +6.7 million jobs added in 2021 and a […]