January 5, 2023
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services declined to $61.5 billion in November, after reaching an all-time high in March 2020. In 2021, the annual U.S. trade deficit hit a new record at $845.0 billion. Higher tariff policies under the Trump and Biden Administrations have not made any significant dent in the trade deficit. […]
January 13, 2023
The Brent Oil Price (global) ended 2022 at $82.82 per barrel, up +7.2% from a year before, but down significantly from its spike to $133.18 in March following the Ukraine invasion. The WTI Oil Price (domestic US) ended 2022 at $80.16 per barrel, up +6.4% from a year ago. It peaked at $123.64 in March. […]
January 5, 2023
At its December 2022 meeting, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC announced it was raising the Fed Funds Rate by 25 bps to 4.5%. This was the latest in a series of rate hikes that began in March 2022. The Fed’s statement can be found here. This chart offers a longer-term perspective on the Fed Funds rate, […]
January 13, 2023
The US federal budget deficit for the calendar year 2022 was $1.42 trillion, down significantly from $3.35 trillion in 2021. The US federal budget deficit as a percentage of GDP was 11.9% in 2021, down from 14.9% (which was the highest figure since World War II). GDP for 2022 is not yet available for comparison, […]
January 5, 2023
The following are diffusion indices, based on business surveys, which means that >50 indicates expansion and <50 indicates contraction, and 50 indicates no change. A larger or small number indicates breadth, not intensity, among survey respondents. ISM Manufacturing Index fell another -0.6 points in December, falling deeper into contraction at 48.4. Manufacturing employment turned slightly […]
January 4, 2023
The S&P 500 Index ended 2022 at 3,839.50, down -19.4% from a year before, after peaking almost exactly at end of 2021. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) ended 2022 at 33,147.25, down -8.8% from a year before, after peaking on January 4. The Nasdaq Composite Index ended 2022 at 10,466.48, down -33.1% from a […]
December 18, 2022
From a Twitter thread I wrote on December 10, 2022: 1. Xi is visiting Saudi Arabia, so I see we’re going to do the “OMG, the Saudis are going to start accepting the RMB for oil and destroy the dollar” thing, so let me explain why I don’t see that as being in anyone’s real […]
December 13, 2022
The U.S. economy added +263,000 jobs in November. The jobs number for September was revised down by -46,000 and October was revised upwards by +23,000, for a net revision of -23,000. Leisure and hospitality added the most jobs (+88k), followed by health care (+45k) and government (+42k). Construction gained +20,000 jobs and manufacturing gained +14,000. […]
December 13, 2022
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services grew to $78.2 billion in October. In 2021, the U.S. trade deficit hit a new record at $845.0 billion. Higher tariff policies under the Trump and Biden Administrations have not made any significant dent in the trade deficit. Usually the trade deficit shrinks during a recession, but […]
December 13, 2022
The following are diffusion indices, based on business surveys, which means that >50 indicates expansion and <50 indicates contraction, and 50 indicates no change. A larger or small number indicates breadth, not intensity, among survey respondents. The ISM Manufacturing Index fell -1.2 points in November, into contraction at 49.0. This was the first contraction reading […]