December 13, 2022
U.S. new homes sales rose +7.5% m/m in October, but were down -5.8% from a year ago. Existing home sales fell -5.9% m/m in October, down -28.4% from a year ago. The media sales price of new homes rose +8.2% m/m in October, up +15.4% from a year ago. The Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price […]
December 13, 2022
U.S. retail sales rose +1.3% m/m in October, after staying flat in September. This puts them up +8.3% from a year ago. Keep in mind these numbers are not adjusted for inflation, which running at +7.1% y/y. Gas station sales saw the largest increase, both m/m and y/y (due, at least in the latter case, […]
December 13, 2022
The University of Michigan’s U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index rose +2.3 points in December to 59.1. However, it is still down -16.3% from a year ago. Previously, the Conference Board’s U.S. Consumer Confidence Index declined -2.0 points in November to 100.2. In November, 18.2% of consumers surveyed by the Conference Board said business conditions were “good,” […]
December 13, 2022
U.S. factory orders rose +1.0% m/m in October, up +11.1% from a year ago. Note that this number is not adjusted for inflation. US durable goods orders fell -2.1% m/m in November, up +6.7% from a year ago. Again, not adjusted for inflation, so real growth in orders is significantly smaller. Durable goods orders excluding […]
December 13, 2022
US consumer prices (CPI) rose +0.1% m/m in November, lower than expected, up +7.1% from a year ago (down from a peak of +9.0% y/y in June). Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose +0.2% m/m in November, less than expected, up +6.0% from a year ago (down from +6.7% in October). Consumer food prices […]
December 13, 2022
US industrial production fell -0.2% m/m in November. Nevertheless, production is still up +2.5% from a year ago. Total industrial capacity utilization declined to 79.7% in November. US manufacturing output (a subset of industrial production) fell -0.6% m/m in November, though it is still up +1.4% from a year ago. Manufacturing capacity utilization declined to […]
December 13, 2022
US real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an annualized q/q rate of +2.9% in Q3, better than expected, after two quarters of negative growth. This is as of revised data released November 30, 2022. The composition of US GDP growth in Q3 was: +2.9% = +1.2 consumption, +0.7 business investment, -1.0 inventories, -1.4 housing, […]
November 15, 2022
US producer prices (PPI – final demand) rose +0.2% m/m in October, less than expected. The index is up +8.0% from a year ago, but down noticeably from its peak of +11.7% in March. PPI is often seen as a leading indicator of where inflation is headed.
November 14, 2022
The critique of constructive US economic engagement (aka “globalization”) is that it enabled a stronger, more threatening China. But the very same approach also facilitated robust allies around the world, including Japan, S Korea, and Singapore. The critique of the Vietnam War was that active US intervention was doomed to fail and cost blood and […]